19 Apr 22 – A New Spring

Will Q2 2022 be a bumper season for NFTs?

While I was approaching this space with cautious optimism, it feels like the bullish momentum is back. Yes BTC is still threatening to break below the $40k support (or ranging there, depending on how you see it) but there are many signs that the money is flowing back.

  1. It was Azuki breaking 30E. Together with their LA event where each Azuki were given two airdrops that held its value really well above 5E each, while Azuki holding their prices above 20E.

  2. Then it was Moonbird by proof collective. A 2.5E raffle mint that brought many overnight riches as it soared into the 20E range within a couple of days – Clone X didn't even see that kind of price movement in its first week

  3. The anime meta fad came and passed quickly, but "blue-chip" NFTs continue to see a lot of strength as people consolidated into them e.g. Clone X, Doodles, Punks, BAYC/MAYC, Azuki, WOW

  4. Top-tier staking projects with their own marketplaces are also performing well around the sub 5E range e.g. Godjira, FEW, Llamaverse

  5. Land plays are also performing incredibly well including the latest Arcade Inc, Worldwide Webb, and NFTWorlds

  6. Some of the degen-nonsensical plays are also selling out and performing crazily albeit short-lived e.g. Gh0stlyGh0st, Tiny Dino, and other omni-chain NFTs, frankfrank, Unemployables etc

These activities are a healthy sign for the market, but even more so we see that there is some form of maturing of the market participants. Low-effort projects failing to mint out suggests that people are getting smarter and not buying into dumps – and those who buy into the degen-short-term plays are well aware of losing it all for those plays.

It's A New Dawn, It's A New Spring

As bullish as it may sound, my sentiments are largely driven by the current momentum of the NFT market and several of the upcoming events around the space. If crypto suddenly takes a nose dive, I still believe that the NFT market can take a U-turn and drop badly. Bad things aside, here are what we can expect

  1. RTFKT and Takashi Murakami launches hell of a release on their MNLTH and New York Event in May, alongside Takashi Murakami's Gagosian exhibition which will bring in a new crowd from the traditional art space

  2. Yuga Labs drops The Other Side (Ape Land) end April, which can be bought only in APE coin estimated at 100,000ETH worth. Considering that APE is traded on the biggest exchanges including Binance and FTX, the bullish momentum will draw in plenty of traders, crypto-but-non-NFT money flowing into the space via APE

  3. Blockchain week in NYC in May will sustain the interest in crypto – alongside the many pushes by traditional funds for a Spot BTC ETF, which will bring in so much capital into crypto

  4. Following that, NFT NYC in June will onboard the influx of new capital into the space. It might spell an even bullish-er month, also with that month leading up to APE Fest.

  5. VeeCon in May will also onboard a whole host of media people new to the space

Yes, there are many happenings, but do note that it may not all be bullish. Some people believe that these drops will lead to more consolidation into these "blue-chip" projects, which means that all the other projects will suffer as people sell them for liquidity to buy into this project.

I hold an opposing view, because I believe that new capital can flow into the market – whether it's through APE, through new attention to the space, or through a more bullish crypto, or through CoinBase. Yet, that Coinbase NFT platform that was rumoured to launch in Q1 2022, and is now stipulated for launch in May 2022. Honestly, that's an enigma that the whole NFT has given up on anticipating, except knowing that if and when it comes, it will spell bullish.

With the whole lineup of events, I believe it's in every incentive for Coinbase to ride on this momentum to catch the wave, bring in new people into NFTs through their platform, and make a strong start in user base, transactions, and revenue.

Finding Focus

With so many things happening in the NFT space, it can be easy to be caught up everywhere and end up nowhere. It's also why I'm choosing to spend less time flipping NFTs, and more time just engaging with people in the space. I'll also be allocating more time to learning (3D modelling and Smart Contracts).

If you're ever caught up in this flurry of mints and events, feel free to take a break. This space is still young. Pace yourself for a marathon and not a sprint. We're only just getting started.